Big Bank Theory: Carney Edition

How a Bay-Street wonk out-maneuvered a populist crusader and an unravelling progressive crew.

Canada’s 2025 snap election felt like a demolition derby: Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives tried but skid into the ditch, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP spun its tires into oblivion, and Mark Carney’s Liberals sailed past the wreckage with a near-majority grin.

In a historic election, the Tories lost this one with an unprecedented massive lead in the polls, the New Democrats forfeited official party status, and the Grits, buoyed by Trump-induced patriotism, claimed 168 ridings.

1. Conservatives: Face-plant in 4K

• The leader was unseated. Poilievre lost Carleton despite barnstorming on “everything-is-broken” rhetoric; it’s the first time a major federal leader has gone down with his ship since 2000. POLITICO, The Guardian

• Civil war is already brewing. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is publicly blamed for “freelancing” during the campaign, triggering open talk of a leadership race and staff exodus. Politico

• Demographic warning signs. Yes, under-35 voters flirted with the Tories, but the party cratered with suburban women and immigrant communities – the ridings they needed for 24 Sussex. Reuters

2. NDP: Orange-crush becomes orange-mush

• The seat count is in single digits. The party fell below the 12-seat threshold for official status, losing swaths of B.C. and the Prairies.

• Singh out. After losing his own Burnaby South seat in third place, Jagmeet Singh announced he’ll resign once an interim leader is picked, sparking the party’s third leadership race in a decade.

• Progressive voters flocked left-and-leftover. Many went with Carney’s technocratic Liberal pitch to stop Poilievre and Trump-style politics.

3. Liberals: Carney’s near-majority comeback

• 168 seats on a 35-day snap writ – the Grits’ fourth straight win, powered by backlash to Trump’s tariffs and sabre-rattling about annexing Canada. The Guardian, Reuters

• Trudeau who? The new PM positioned himself as a steady hand on currency and geopolitics. Voters bought it, even if they held their noses over a decade-plus of Liberal government.

• Minority math. Carney can govern case-by-case: entice the Bloc on Quebec files or the NDP on social program spending, at every confidence motion. Either way, he’s not beholden to Poilievre or a broken-down NDP.

4. Everyone else

The Bloc Québécois Lost ground in Montréal suburbs as Carney poached soft nationalists. The Greens’ Elizabeth May hung on in Saanich–Gulf Islands; co-leader Jonathan Pedneault was defeated, dashing hopes of a two-seat caucus. Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party failed to crack 2 % of the vote; no seats.

5. Why did it happen?

• Made-in-USA election. Trump’s tariff war and talk of making Canada the “51st state” re-lit the Patriotism-101 vote, tilting soft Tories and swing voters toward the Liberals. AP News

• Affordability fatigue. Poilievre’s rage-against-Ottawa pitch oversaturated; Carney’s banker-turned-politician persona felt safer amid mortgage-rate angst.

• Left vote fragmentation. The NDP's dysfunctional operation for three years wasn’t “too much centre” or “not enough left”—it was incompetent. The Liberals stole the best NDP ideas and reasonably stamped them as “more credible.” The NDP needs more than soul-searching; they need to remodel the house from foundation to fixtures.

6. What’s next (and why you might enjoy the show)

• The Tory knives are out. There could be a leadership scramble featuring Doug Ford loyalists, libertarian hold-outs, and a Red Tory reboot faction. Still, more remains to be seen since, technically, Pierre Poilievre led the Tories to their largest overall vote support in a long time and mobilized an energized base of supporters.

• NDP soul-searching. With no official-party funding and Singh walking away, the NDP may have to crowdfund its autopsy. No clear leadership candidates are evident, and it’s doubtful many would want the job of rebuilding a fourth-place party with little to no money, lacking official party status.

• Carney’s balancing act. Four seats short of a full majority, he’ll dangle policy goodies before Bloc, Greens, or the wounded NDP – while daring Poilievre to vote down popular middle-class tax cuts and trigger another election.