Canada’s Political Turning Point

What the Next Election Could Mean for Canada

Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will step down as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada sets the stage for a leadership race within the party, followed by a federal election expected in April or May.

Here’s the broader context to consider: Around the world, incumbent governments are losing elections, largely due to voter frustration over rising inflation. This mirrors a similar trend from the early 1980s, which saw the rise of figures like Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, and Brian Mulroney. Voters often blame sitting governments for economic hardships, like inflation, but rarely credit them during periods of growth. This pattern has affected left, centrist, and right-wing governments alike, with voters primarily demanding “change.”

In Canada, the Conservative Party is undergoing a major transformation after repeated losses to Trudeau. The party is reshaping its coalition to appeal to a broader range of voters, including young people, union workers, immigrants (including many from racialized communities), and middle-class suburban families, alongside its traditional base of social and fiscal conservatives.

The combination of voter dissatisfaction with the Liberals, the length of their time in power, and a revitalized Conservative Party means Canada is likely headed for a significant political shift. If the Conservatives form the next government, their policies could represent a stark departure from those of the Trudeau era. For younger Canadians especially, this may mean encountering government policies that clash with our values and actively target or dismantle initiatives we care about.

Periods of rightward political shifts bring challenges—but also opportunities for action. I’ll leave these thoughts for now and share more later on potential responses during major political shifts like the one we’re about to go through.